Does a positive edge mean the bet is likely to win?

No. The market still implies about a 20.5% chance this hits at the offered odds. A +EV bet pays more than its true probability warrants — most +EV bets at long odds still lose individually.

How are fair odds calculated?

Sportsbook prices on the same market are de-vigged and averaged to estimate a true win probability. Using the available market price, we estimate 36.0%, which converts to fair odds of +178.

Why does this grade differ from the sportsbook's advertised lift?

Books quote lifts vs their own original line, which already includes margin. We compare the price to a vig-free consensus, so an advertised lift can still grade poorly if the underlying line was inflated.

Should I bet every bet that grades well?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a guarantee. Even a B-grade bet can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation, and don't chase results.

125% SGP Boost — B Grade — Modest Edge Play (60/100)

Q: What does a +75.2% edge mean?

A positive edge of +75.2% means the price (+387) pays more than the fair price (+178). Over many identical bets, that gap is your expected return per dollar staked.

All analyses

AiOddsLab

DraftKings

Lottery TicketBalancedB

Longshot — fun stake only

125% SGP Boost

Real edge on paper, but you're chasing a longshot. Size it like a lottery ticket, not a paycheck. 5 legs compound fast against you.

Stake idea · Balanced

0.5u · Half

Reasonable spot — half a unit keeps it fun.

Your odds

+387

Fair odds

+178

Edge

+75.2%

Price bump+79%Est. true win chance36.0%

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One brand · 3 sizes

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Inside angles

Researching…

Pulling weather, lineups, head-to-head, and schedule spots…

Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.

AI breakdown

Verdict: This boost offers substantial positive expected value due to the generous boost percentage.

Value: The boosted odds of +387 present a significant 75.18% edge over the devigged fair odds of +178.
Market context: The boost increases the original odds of +172 to +387, creating a considerable discrepancy compared to the fair odds.
Status: All players listed in the legs are active.
Risk: This is a 5-leg parlay, which inherently carries high multi-leg parlay variance.
Recommendation: Standard.

How this bet was graded

Grade B · 60/100 · Lottery Ticket

125% SGP Boost at +387 on DraftKings (5 legs): we devig the available market on the same market to estimate a true win probability of 36.0% — fair odds +178. The gap between +387 and +178 is the +75.18% edge: your long-run expected return per dollar if the market is right about true probability.

Frequently asked questions

What does a +75.2% edge mean?

Across many identical wagers, you'd expect to gain about 75.2 cents on every dollar staked — that's the gap between +387 and the consensus fair price (+178). Single-bet variance still dominates the short run.

Does a positive edge mean this is likely to win?

No. The price still implies roughly a 20.5% chance the ticket cashes. +EV means the payout exceeds the true probability — most positive-EV longshots still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar bets.

Should I bet every A-grade ticket?

Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an B-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.