Longshot — fun stake only
Stacking 5 legs at plus money is how books print. Even with edge, prepare to lose this most weeks.
Angles are surfaced only when backed by a specific fact. Verify lineups and weather close to game time.
Grade B · 60/100 · Lottery Ticket
125% SGP Boost at +387 on DraftKings (5 legs): we devig the available market on the same market to estimate a true win probability of 36.0% — fair odds +178. The gap between +387 and +178 is the +75.18% edge: your long-run expected return per dollar if the market is right about true probability.
Across many identical wagers, you'd expect to gain about 75.2 cents on every dollar staked — that's the gap between +387 and the consensus fair price (+178). Single-bet variance still dominates the short run.
No. The price still implies roughly a 20.5% chance the ticket cashes. +EV means the payout exceeds the true probability — most positive-EV longshots still lose individually. The edge only shows up across many similar bets.
Grading is a price-quality signal, not a prediction. Even an B-grade ticket can lose. Size within your bankroll, account for correlation between legs, and use Inside Angles above to spot factors the price hasn't absorbed yet.